Published August 16, 2021
Vox Pop Labs has once again partnered with the Toronto Star to relaunch The Signal, our election poll aggregator for the 2021 Canadian federal election.
The Signal is based on a statistical model designed to identify and correct for the bias in individual polls. The model draws on hundreds of opinion polls from past election cycles to predict the vote and seat share for each of the political parties.
The Signal is based on the mechanics of a Bayesian dynamic linear model – a model also in use by the New York Times and FiveThirtyEight – and the full methodology is available online. The Signal will be updated daily.
It was last used by the Star for the 2015 federal election where it demonstrated the best overall performance of any poll aggregator in Canada.
Vox Pop Labs CEO and McMaster University political science professor Clifton van der Linden told the Toronto Star that The Signal is a passion project as we know that citizens sometimes rely on polls to make strategic decisions about how to vote.
“Our goal in developing a poll aggregator is to provide them with the most accurate information we can so they can make an informed decision, if the state of the horse race is a factor in their calculus on election day,” he said
Read the full article from the Toronto Star here.
Visit The Signal at http://signal.thestar.com.