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Our variant of the model accounts for two biases in the polling industry. First, we account for the fact that pollsters differ systematically between each other with respect to whether they over- or under-represent certain voters. For example, compared to the polling industry average, some pollsters might over-represent Progressive Conservative party voters; others, NDP voters. The model accounts for these differences dynamically, such that each poll that is released is filtered for our current estimate of that bias. Polls over multiple years are used to calculate these “house biases” so that they themselves are recalculated each time a new poll is released. Second, we account for bias in the polling industry as a whole by using data from previous elections. In the Canadian context, these biases are relatively small, although not insignificant: even small differences in national vote share can have relatively large effects on seat share.\n\nBecause there are many days on which polls are not released and because polls contain sampling error, the model uses information about where vote intention stood on one day to inform where it stands the next day. If a new poll is released, vote share estimates for that day effectively become a weighted average of information from the newly released poll and from information about where vote intention stood on the previous day. This means that outlier (and all other) polls are effectively pulled in toward the previous day’s forecast. Visually, this means that vote intention across time will appear relatively smooth, as we would expect it to in reality.\n\nThis differs from other forecasting models in Canada where one might see forecasts jump around relatively drastically from poll release to poll release. Unfortunately, this leads many commentators in Canada to speculate that large changes are occurring in the electorate for various reasons related to the campaign even if no substantial changes are occurring in reality. An added benefit is that a new forecast can be released for each day of the campaign, even if no new poll is released, and we are able to estimate vote intention for every day of the campaign.\n\nTo estimate regional-level vote share, we run a separate model with the same basic structure as the national model. We then adjust the regional vote share results proportionally such that they match estimates from the national-level forecast. For riding-level predictions, given that the federal electoral boundaries have been updated since the last federal election, we use Elections Canada data to map the results of the previous election to current electoral boundaries. To produce estimates in each riding, we adjust all party results for each seat proportionally to match the estimated regional (and national) vote share forecast. In addition to these uniform swings, we account for incumbents running as candidates in a riding they have previously held. It is worth noting that the degree of uncertainty with respect to these projections is highest at the individual riding level. As riding-level predictions are derived from federal vote share estimates and vote share in the last federal election rather than local polling data (which do not exist in sufficient numbers), they should be interpreted with due caution."}},"productLogo":null,"product":{"id":"870a2f03-3913-5049-9b8c-07b41b4af46c","path":"/the-signal","name":"The Signal","uuid":"thesignal"},"seo":{"metaTitle":"Vox Pop Labs - The Signal - Methodology","metaDescription":"Empowering informed decisions. We build data-driven digital products that help navigate complex choices.","metaImage":{"url":"https://s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/site.voxpoplabs.com/vpl_logo_56477a84de.png"},"twitterHandle":null}},"product":{"id":"870a2f03-3913-5049-9b8c-07b41b4af46c","uuid":"thesignal","path":"/the-signal","locale":"en","seo":{"metaTitle":"Vox Pop Labs - The Signal","metaDescription":"Empowering informed decisions. 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This can undermine public confidence in polling or even misdirect voters who rely on these data to inform their vote.\n\nTo address this issue, Vox Pop Labs developed The Signal in partnership with some of Canada's most respected academics in the field of computational social science. The Signal is a sophisticated statistical model that estimates and adjusts for persistent differences between polling firms using years of historical polling data. It accounts for systematic bias across the polling industry as a whole by benchmarking against actual election results. The model learns from the history of where polls have been wrong and corrects for it in real time.\n\n### Outcomes and Impact\nFirst launched in 2015 in partnership with the Toronto Star, The Signal has been featured by the Star in every federal election since, as well as in several Ontario provincial elections. Over the course of a decade, The Signal has consistently produced some of the most accurate forecasts of any poll aggregator or polling firm in Canada, making it a trusted source of information for millions of Canadians. Based on its enduring reliability as an authoritative forecasting model, the Star upgraded The Signal in 2026 from an election-specific feature to a permanent fixture on TheStar.com."}},"link":{"text":"View project","url":"https://www.thestar.com/thesignal","page":null},"media":[{"uuid":"productImage","name":null,"image":{"url":"https://s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/site.voxpoplabs.com/the_signal_product_new_3f784afe8f.png"},"imageAlt":null}],"partners":[],"timeline":[],"statistics":[],"miscText":[]}]},"bottomNav":{"menus":[{"uuid":"","name":"Democratic engagement","navMenuLinks":[{"text":"Vote Compass","url":null,"page":{"path":"/vote-compass"}},{"text":"The Signal","url":null,"page":{"path":"/the-signal"}},{"text":"Polimeter","url":null,"page":{"path":"/polimeter"}}],"link":null},{"uuid":null,"name":"Public opinion research","navMenuLinks":[{"text":"OurCare","url":null,"page":{"path":"/our-care"}},{"text":"COVID-19 Monitor","url":null,"page":{"path":"/covid19-monitor"}},{"text":"News effectiveness study","url":null,"page":{"path":"/news-effectiveness-study"}},{"text":"Australia Talks","url":null,"page":{"path":"/australia-talks"}}],"link":null},{"uuid":"decisionTools","name":"Decision science","navMenuLinks":[{"text":"Vote Compass","url":null,"page":{"path":"/vote-compass"}},{"text":"DegreeHub","url":null,"page":{"path":"/degreehub"}},{"text":"Career Myth Buster","url":null,"page":{"path":"/career-myth-buster"}}],"link":{"url":null,"page":null}}],"sections":[{"uuid":"bottomNav_panel","title":"Join the Thought Leader Community","description":{"data":{"description":"Become a member of our online respondent panel, made up of people from all over the world and all walks of life. 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