Ontario’s ridings—from left to right

Ontario’s ridings—from left to right

Published June 5, 2018

Vox Pop Labs measures how progressive or conservative each of the province’s ridings are relative to one another

Drawing on the unprecedented response to the 2018 Ontario election edition of Vote Compass, Vox Pop Labs has produced a riding-level analysis of ideology in Ontario.

“By aggregating responses to Vote Compass, we can estimate the average ideological placement of each riding in Ontario on a left-right continuum,” explained Charles Breton, research director for Vox Pop Labs. “The resulting analysis allows us to understand how left-leaning or right-leaning ridings in Ontario are relative to one another.”

The findings are visualized below by ranking of all the ridings from most left-leaning to most right-leaning, as determined by responses to Vote Compass. The results are relative to other ridings — with Davenport being the most left-leaning riding in Ontario and Carleton being the most right-leaning — and do not represent left or right in absolute terms nor are they intended to be an indication of the outcome of the election. The visualization also indicates the party that held the riding upon the dissolution of government. For ridings that have changed boundaries since the 2014 election, and where the newly created riding overlaps with previous ridings won by different parties, no incumbent is specified.

These results are based on 121,010 respondents who participated in Vote Compass from May 8 to June 4, 2018. The data have been weighted to ensure the sample reflects the population of Ontario.

Some findings of note:

  • Carleton, a riding in the Ottawa region, is the most right-leaning riding in the province. It is a new riding formed out of three ridings each held by a different party (PC, Trillium, Liberal).
  • King-Vaughan, a new riding combining Oak Ridges-Markham and Vaughan, two Liberal seats, is the second-most right leaning riding in the province.
  • Not far behind, in sixth place, Essex is the most right-leaning riding that is currently represented by the NDP.
  • At the other end of the spectrum, Nipissing is the most left-leaning of all PC ridings but is still right of centre in relative terms.
  • Only two of the ten most left-leaning ridings are not in Toronto (Hamilton-Centre and Ottawa-Centre).
  • Seven of the ten most right-leaning seats are in Southwestern Ontario.

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