Ontarians predict a PC majority in Ontario

Ontarians predict a PC majority in Ontario

Published June 6, 2018

Despite the polls being neck-in-neck, most Ontarians expect that Doug Ford will be the next Premier of Ontario

According to responses to the 2018 Ontario election edition of Vote Compass, most Ontario voters believe that the PC Party will form a majority government tomorrow.

Vote Compass asked users to rate the likelihood that each party has of winning in their riding using a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 indicated little to no likelihood and 10 indicated a high likelihood.

“People’s expectations of the outcome of the vote aren’t always accurate,” said Clifton van der Linden, executive director of Vox Pop Labs, the makers of Vote Compass. “We saw in Alberta in 2015, for example, that despite the polls indicating a win for the NDP, people still thought the PCs would continue to govern. But it’s still a valuable insight into how people see the election shaping up in their backyards.”

As of today, Ontarians predict that the PC Party will win 76 seats, the NDP 42 seats, the Liberals 5 seats, and the Green Party one seat. However, in certain ridings the aggregates between parties are very close.

These results are based on 168,898 respondents who participated in Vote Compass from May 8 to June 6, 2018. The data have been weighted to ensure the sample reflects the population of Ontario.

Ontarians’ predictions by riding

Respondents to Vote Compass were asked to rate the likelihood that each of the parties had of winning in their riding on a 10-point scale. The results reported below are the averages of these ratings. These estimates are based on 17,803 respondents to Vote Compass between June 3 and June 6.

PC LIB NDP GRN
Ajax 5.9 3.8 4.6 1.1
Algoma–Manitoulin 3.4 2.3 7.1 2.2
Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill 6.1 3.8 3.5 1
Barrie–Innisfil 6.5 3 4.3 1.7
Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte 6.9 2 3.9 2.1
Bay of Quinte 6.5 2.6 3.9 1.2
Beaches–East York 2.4 4.9 6.8 1.8
Brampton Centre 4.7 4.2 5.7 1
Brampton East 3.8 5 6.3 1.1
Brampton North 4.3 4.2 5 0.9
Brampton South 6 3.4 5.3 1.2
Brampton West 4.5 4.4 5.3 1.2
Brantford–Brant 5.7 2.3 5.2 1.1
Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound 7.8 2 3 1.5
Burlington 6.4 3.3 3.6 0.9
Cambridge 5.7 3.5 4.8 1.5
Carleton 7.1 2.9 3 1.1
Chatham-Kent–Leamington 6.7 1.4 4.5 0.9
Davenport 2 4.6 7.4 1.7
Don Valley East 4.6 5.3 4.5 1.4
Don Valley North 5.8 4.3 3.7 0.8
Don Valley West 5.5 4.7 3.5 0.9
Dufferin–Caledon 7.4 2.1 3.2 2.1
Durham 6 2.6 5 1.2
Eglinton–Lawrence 5.7 5.3 3.1 0.9
Elgin–Middlesex–London 7 2.3 3.9 1.2
Essex 4.4 1.5 6.9 0.9
Etobicoke Centre 6.5 4.4 3.2 0.6
Etobicoke North 6.4 3.8 4.2 1.1
Etobicoke–Lakeshore 6.1 3.8 4.1 0.8
Flamborough–Glanbrook 6.5 2.4 4 1.1
Glengarry–Prescott–Russell 6 3.9 4.1 0.7
Guelph 3.3 3.4 5.4 6.1
Haldimand–Norfolk 7.2 1.5 3.3 1
Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock 7.8 1.9 3.4 0.7
Hamilton Centre 2.2 2.4 8.3 1.5
Hamilton East–Stoney Creek 3.8 2.2 6.6 1.1
Hamilton Mountain 3.7 2.2 7.2 1.3
Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas 5.2 3.6 5.5 0.9
Hastings–Lennox and Addington 6.9 2.2 3.7 1
Humber River–Black Creek 3.9 3.9 5.8 1
Huron–Bruce 7.4 2.1 3.4 0.9
Kanata–Carleton 6.7 3 3.5 1
Kenora–Rainy River 6.1 3.2 5.7 1.9
Kiiwetinoong 5.7 4.4 5.8 2.4
King–Vaughan 6.6 4 2.7 1.3
Kingston and the Islands 4.1 5 5.5 1.5
Kitchener Centre 4.8 3.8 5.6 1.6
Kitchener South–Hespeler 5.4 3 5.3 1.9
Kitchener–Conestoga 6.5 2.5 4.5 1.4
Lambton–Kent–Middlesex 6.7 1.6 3.6 1
Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston 7.1 2.1 3.5 1
Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Ri 7.8 1.8 2.7 0.8
London North Centre 5 3.6 5.4 1.4
London West 4 2.5 6.4 1.2
London–Fanshawe 4.1 2.5 6.7 1.2
Markham–Stouffville 5.8 4 4 0.9
Markham–Thornhill 5.7 4.3 4.1 0.9
Markham–Unionville 6.6 3.7 4.1 1.3
Milton 5.8 3.7 3.5 1.2
Mississauga Centre 5.5 4.3 4.5 1.8
Mississauga East–Cooksville 5.6 4.4 4.1 1.5
Mississauga–Erin Mills 5.5 4.6 4.4 1.2
Mississauga–Lakeshore 6 5.3 3.5 1
Mississauga–Malton 5 4.6 4.8 1.2
Mississauga–Streetsville 5.4 4.2 4.5 1.3
Mushkegowuk–James Bay 4.1 1.9 6.1 1.7
Nepean 6.9 3 3.4 1
Newmarket–Aurora 6.3 3.5 3.5 0.8
Niagara Centre 4.8 1.8 6.2 1.1
Niagara Falls 4.2 1.9 6.9 1.1
Niagara West 7.8 1.6 2.8 0.8
Nickel Belt 3.5 2.1 7.2 0.8
Nipissing 7.2 2.2 4.7 1.3
Northumberland–Peterborough South 5.8 3.7 4 0.9
Oakville 5.9 4.8 3.1 0.9
Oakville North–Burlington 6.3 3.4 4.1 1.2
Orléans 5.7 4.8 4.1 1
Oshawa 5.1 1.7 6.3 0.9
Ottawa Centre 2.5 5.3 6.2 1.3
Ottawa South 4.5 5.6 4.6 1.1
Ottawa West–Nepean 5 4.8 4.7 1.3
Ottawa–Vanier 3.1 6.7 4.8 1.2
Oxford 7.4 1.6 3.5 1.3
Parkdale–High Park 2.8 3.7 7.5 1.5
Parry Sound–Muskoka 7.4 1.8 3.5 3.3
Perth–Wellington 7.4 1.9 3.3 0.9
Peterborough–Kawartha 5.6 3.7 4.9 1
Pickering–Uxbridge 6.4 3.6 4 0.9
Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke 7.6 2.5 2.2 1.3
Richmond Hill 5.9 4.8 4.1 1.1
Sarnia–Lambton 6.8 1.2 5.1 1.2
Sault Ste. Marie 6.3 2.4 5.5 1
Scarborough Centre 5.2 4.9 5.7 0.9
Scarborough North 5.7 4.3 4.7 1.7
Scarborough Southwest 4.6 3.9 6.5 1.1
Scarborough–Agincourt 6.2 5.3 4.6 1.9
Scarborough–Guildwood 4.5 5.5 4.5 1.3
Scarborough–Rouge Park 5 3.6 5.6 1
Simcoe North 7.2 2.4 3.5 1.1
Simcoe–Grey 7 2.5 3 1.2
Spadina–Fort York 3.3 5 6.1 1.7
St. Catharines 4.9 3.8 4.8 1.3
Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry 7.3 2.5 3.2 1
Sudbury 4 4 6.2 1.2
Thornhill 7.3 2.5 2.6 0.9
Thunder Bay–Atikokan 4.1 4.6 5.4 1.5
Thunder Bay–Superior North 3.6 5.3 5.7 1.4
Timiskaming–Cochrane 3.9 2.2 7.3 1
Timmins 3.7 2.3 7.1 1.2
Toronto Centre 2.9 5 6.3 1.7
Toronto–Danforth 1.2 3.6 8.4 1.7
Toronto–St. Paul’s 3.9 5.6 4.9 1
University–Rosedale 3.1 4.4 6.2 2
Vaughan–Woodbridge 6 5.2 3.3 1.3
Waterloo 4.6 2.8 6.6 1.2
Wellington–Halton Hills 7.4 2 3.1 1.7
Whitby 6.9 2.2 4.3 0.8
Willowdale 5.5 4.3 4.2 1.1
Windsor West 3.8 3.2 7.4 1.1
Windsor–Tecumseh 3.9 2.3 6.9 1.2
York Centre 6.7 4 3.7 0.8
York South–Weston 3.7 5.1 5.1 1.3
York–Simcoe 7.7 1.8 3 1

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